Long write-up, I need to read it thoroughly first because I understand the space very well. Funny enough I work for a competitor in this space and in this geographic location ( I m in Singapore though but we do Business in ANZ). So I will ask around to get some insights about PharmX.
Some people study and practice for years to become lawyers and judges capable of understanding how Australian Corporate laws apply (and what a court is likely to rule). Perhaps the lesson here is that predicting court verdicts requires a different skillset and knowledge bank than predicting earnings.
My thesis was not based on predicting court decision. It was not core for the thesis as I am not lawyer and it would not make sense, but I get your point. My thesis is that core business is really strong and will get tailwinds of vaping being only sold through pharmacies soon, which should result in new supplier connections. On top of that one can see pharmacies are becoming more retail, which should help the growth. I considered my buying price at $0.03 to have strong margin of safety in terms of something goes wrong. And I still think current price does not reflect the opportunity served. Of course it hurts the IRR, but the picture will get clearer from now. Then it will depend on my fundamental analysis, rather than external forces.
After you published your article the stock opened at 5c, and closed at 5.5c. The lesson is for anyone who bought as a result of your promotion of the idea. You clearly disclosed your lower purchase price, hence you did have some margin of safety. Did you sell any shares after publishing your article?
Claude, I did lots of research and share it, I dont know whether it is promotion, nobody had to buy. I have not sold any, if you want I will send you my monthly trades. I felt like I moved the price a lot, which happened for the first time to me, and did not want to misuse it. If I did something wrong, please tell me.
When you state a provably wrong unqualified legal opinion as fact with a view to minimising the perception of the risk that a company you own shares in will lose litigation, is it better described as sharing research, or stock promotion?
You wrote; "The only way to overturn this would be to persuade judge that they gave notice of the change at the time the change of control went through immediately."
This was provably wrong at the time you published the words. For example, the judgement could be overturned if the appeals court held that the statute of limitations should bar an action arising from the original breach.
I guess you were never wrong mate. I was wrong, I admit it. I take the consenquences, constantly learning. I am 21 with no lawyer background. Tried my best, and it did not change my view on the business. Keep the words like promotion for yourself. Would expect a bit more from someone like you.
To seed, build, and nurture timeless, intangible human capitals — such as resilience, trust, evolution, fulfilment, quality, peace, patience, discipline, relationships and conviction — in order to elevate human judgment, deepen relationships, and restore sacred trusteeship and stewardship of long-term firm value across generations.
A refreshing poetic take on our business world and capitalism.
A reflection on why today’s capital architectures—PE, VC, Hedge funds, SPAC, Alt funds, Rollups—mostly fail to build and nuture what time can trust.
Built to Be Left.
A quiet anatomy of extraction, abandonment, and the collapse of stewardship.
"Principal-Agent Risk is not a flaw in the system.
All on track, will do update in the future when I have time. Legal case was never a core of this investment, only a free option. It looks better to me now than at original time of this write-up. Really excited about next few years.
Really enjoyed the article and discovering your Substack. You mentioned at the beginning your fluency in English as sometimes not allowing you to express in the way that you want/intend/expect others to follow. If I can suggest something, maybe try using Grammarly. It’s great for rewriting posts. Looking forward to your next write up.
Great write up Jakub
Thank you very much.
Long write-up, I need to read it thoroughly first because I understand the space very well. Funny enough I work for a competitor in this space and in this geographic location ( I m in Singapore though but we do Business in ANZ). So I will ask around to get some insights about PharmX.
Would be great! Please feel free to reach out.
Some people study and practice for years to become lawyers and judges capable of understanding how Australian Corporate laws apply (and what a court is likely to rule). Perhaps the lesson here is that predicting court verdicts requires a different skillset and knowledge bank than predicting earnings.
Hi Claude,
My thesis was not based on predicting court decision. It was not core for the thesis as I am not lawyer and it would not make sense, but I get your point. My thesis is that core business is really strong and will get tailwinds of vaping being only sold through pharmacies soon, which should result in new supplier connections. On top of that one can see pharmacies are becoming more retail, which should help the growth. I considered my buying price at $0.03 to have strong margin of safety in terms of something goes wrong. And I still think current price does not reflect the opportunity served. Of course it hurts the IRR, but the picture will get clearer from now. Then it will depend on my fundamental analysis, rather than external forces.
Jacob
After you published your article the stock opened at 5c, and closed at 5.5c. The lesson is for anyone who bought as a result of your promotion of the idea. You clearly disclosed your lower purchase price, hence you did have some margin of safety. Did you sell any shares after publishing your article?
Claude, I did lots of research and share it, I dont know whether it is promotion, nobody had to buy. I have not sold any, if you want I will send you my monthly trades. I felt like I moved the price a lot, which happened for the first time to me, and did not want to misuse it. If I did something wrong, please tell me.
When you state a provably wrong unqualified legal opinion as fact with a view to minimising the perception of the risk that a company you own shares in will lose litigation, is it better described as sharing research, or stock promotion?
You wrote; "The only way to overturn this would be to persuade judge that they gave notice of the change at the time the change of control went through immediately."
This was provably wrong at the time you published the words. For example, the judgement could be overturned if the appeals court held that the statute of limitations should bar an action arising from the original breach.
Here's the link to the judgement if you're interested. https://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/vic/VSCA/2024/176.html
I guess you were never wrong mate. I was wrong, I admit it. I take the consenquences, constantly learning. I am 21 with no lawyer background. Tried my best, and it did not change my view on the business. Keep the words like promotion for yourself. Would expect a bit more from someone like you.
"If I did something wrong, please tell me"
-> I Told you what you did wrong
"I guess you were never wrong mate."
Hello there,
Huge Respect for your work!
New here. No readers Yet.
But the work has waited long to be spoken.
Its truths have roots older than this platform.
My Sub-stack Purpose
To seed, build, and nurture timeless, intangible human capitals — such as resilience, trust, evolution, fulfilment, quality, peace, patience, discipline, relationships and conviction — in order to elevate human judgment, deepen relationships, and restore sacred trusteeship and stewardship of long-term firm value across generations.
A refreshing poetic take on our business world and capitalism.
A reflection on why today’s capital architectures—PE, VC, Hedge funds, SPAC, Alt funds, Rollups—mostly fail to build and nuture what time can trust.
Built to Be Left.
A quiet anatomy of extraction, abandonment, and the collapse of stewardship.
"Principal-Agent Risk is not a flaw in the system.
It is the system’s operating principle”
Experience first. Return if it speaks to you.
- The Silent Treasury
https://tinyurl.com/48m97w5e
Any update on the investment case? The stock is rallying lately despite losing the legal case
All on track, will do update in the future when I have time. Legal case was never a core of this investment, only a free option. It looks better to me now than at original time of this write-up. Really excited about next few years.
Really enjoyed the article and discovering your Substack. You mentioned at the beginning your fluency in English as sometimes not allowing you to express in the way that you want/intend/expect others to follow. If I can suggest something, maybe try using Grammarly. It’s great for rewriting posts. Looking forward to your next write up.